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The prospect of taking on a fatally wounded Trump for the presidency will tempt anyone with ambition. In an extremely open heat, for which could at least 20 names are plausible, here’s my current top-ten.
Beto O’Rourke
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Many argue that the Democrat list lacks a standout candidate – a star. O’Rourke would perfectly fit that void. He combines Barack Obama’s politics and inspiring rhetoric with Bernie Sanders’ ability to attract huge crowds, and Bobby Kennedy’s looks. If anyone can drive turnout for the left – which may prove decisive in 2020 – it is Beto.
We don’t know whether he’ll run, but he will certainly be pressured to do so by the army of nationwide supporters built during a gallant campaign for Texas. Despite refusing corporate ‘PAC’ money in favour of small donors – a salient issue on the Left – he raised more than any Senatorial candidate in history. He drew enormous crowds everywhere and his narrow defeat read very well compared to other Democrat Senate contenders in pro-Trump states. The wider electorate is much more fertile.
I first tipped O’Rourke for president at 50.0 months ago and went in again at 17.0 after the mid-terms. That defeat leaves him free to run if and constant speculation is guaranteed. Hypothetical match-up polls will soon emerge and drive the narrative. I predict they’ll show O’Rourke beating Trump by double-digits.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Kamala Harris
Harris is top-rated in the betting and her chance is obvious. The party is becoming ever more diverse from top to bottom and there’s a very strong grassroots drive to pick female leaders. Critically, she is a Senator for California – whose primary will play a pivotal role from an earlier position on the schedule.
Given a high-profile role in the Senate, she won’t lack publicity. She’s very much on the front line in the bitter row over immigration and investigating Trump. However she is only one of several high-ranking women in contention and it isn’t clear yet that Harris has what it takes to stand out in a presidential primary.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Sherrod Brown
Brown’s Senate defence in Ohio reads as good as any mid-term result. He won by 6.4% – up on 2012 despite the state moving notably away from the Democrats during that period. On the same night, they failed to win the Governorship. If flipping this state in a general election, the presidency would be assured.
Amid much excitement online, Brown has confirmed he’s seriously considering a run. He is firmly on the left of the party, closely allied to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but backed Clinton and was apparently on her VP shortlist. A national stage is a big step up for this Ohio veteran but he’s well-placed to be the standard bearer for progressives and his white working-class support should terrify Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Kirsten Gillibrand
A high-profile experienced Senator from New York who has been among the most vocal MeToo campaigners. A strong resume on paper but Gillibrand alienated key supporters by criticising Bill Clinton and Al Franken over sexual abuse. Nevertheless everything about her behaviour points towards a run and perhaps those controversies will now work to her advantage.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
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Amy Klobuchar
Another mid-terms star, Klobuchar retained her Minnesota Senate seat by 24%, thriving among all-important suburban women following a strong performance during the Kavanaugh hearings. Her profile is rising fast and she’s openly considering a run. Her state neighbours Iowa and her relatively moderate centrist style would be ideal to win Independents against Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Joe Biden
Don’t overstate Biden’s early poll lead. At this stage, the former VP enjoys a vast name recognition advantage and he is hugely popular. He’s also 76 and in a party where old, white men are out of fashion. I don’t expect ‘Uncle Joe’ to run but do expect he’ll enjoy teasing the media. If I’m wrong, though, he would destroy Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Elizabeth Warren
Warren’s low position may surprise. She is a darling of the Left and, with hindsight, should have taken on Clinton in 2016. However I’ve never been certain she had presidential ambitions and it feels increasingly like her chance has faded. She fares worse than rivals in head-to-head polls versus Trump and self-harmed when taking a DNA test to prove distant Native American heritage. I think she’ll hand Brown a massive endorsement.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Bernie Sanders
Will Bernie try again? Like Warren, his decisions are keenly awaited. Now 77, Sanders remains the leader of a growing progressive movement and attracts huge crowds, but his preferred candidates didn’t fare so well in the mid-terms. I can envisage him winning primaries against this crowded field with a 35% vote share. I can equally see him backing Sherrod Brown – who has wider appeal and a less defined image.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Michael Bloomberg
Here’s a wild-card. Formerly Republican Mayor of New York, Bloomberg has switched sides. Cash won’t be a problem for this self-financing billionaire, who would surely relish comparing his philanthropic record with Trump. Whilst his politics are probably not left enough for a Democrat primary, he oozes gravitas and could have a moderating impact in debates. Primary turnout will be huge, involving many independents, amongst whom he could play extremely well.
2020 Presidential odds:
Michael Avenatti
After 2016, we dismiss unconventional social media masters at our peril. Representing porn star Stormy Daniels may not be an obvious route to the presidency, but Avenatti became an overnight star, positioned as a ‘fighter for good’, leading The Resistance. In taking down Michael Cohen, he landed a blow on Trump that no politician has yet mustered. He seems near certain to run and, as Trump’s legal travails continue, will remain all over the media.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
OTHERS
Don’t believe the hype. Hillary Clinton won’t run and if she did, humiliating defeat awaits. Time has moved on. Cory Booker has been touring the key states and will likely run. The moves of Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper imply the same.
As Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock is another who has proved he can win in a Trump state. Finally former Attorney General Eric Holder seems to be dipping his toe in the water and could gain establishment backing from both Obama and Clinton supporters.
CONCLUSION
No Democratic Nominee can match Beto O’Rourke for star power and momentum. I’ve backed him several times and will continue doing so. However, his value has diminished significantly.
The remaining stand out bet is Sherrod Brown. I’m anticipating big support from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and am backing the Ohio Senator at big odds. He’s $30+ to just be nominated, where I mark him in single digits.
BETTING STRATEGY
BACK Beto O’Rourke for the US Presidency at $9 or above
BACK Sherrod Brown for the Democratic Nominee at $20 or above
BACK Sherrod Brown for the US Presidency at $34 or above
Here are the exact US Election odds, in real time:
Back, Lay and Trade on the world’s biggest betting market. Use the Betfair Exchange.
MArket movements
There have been plenty of fluctuations in the US Election odds during an insane 2020. As Covid-19 was starting to spread aggresively through the United States, Joe Biden was trading at a high of $36 in February.
Since becoming the presumed Democratic nominee in early March, Biden no longer traded above $4.00.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, was a dominant favourite in February. Trading at $1.65, before drifting as 2020 took hold. Covid-19, Black Lives Matters, and other domestic challenges, pushed the President out to underdog status from June.
More recently, Trump has floated around $3 and is expected to start at those odds, or longer, before the votes are counted.
US Election Tips
The most popular political prediction website in the US is FiveThirtyEight.
They have a Model, that’s updated daily, which gives Joe Biden an 89% chance of winning the Election.
That converts to odds of $1.12.
Our favourite resource has been the host of articles we’ve read from full time political gambler, Paul Krishnamurty.
Long ago, when Biden’s odds were larger, he recommended Backing Biden to win the Election, and backing Donald Trump to win Florida. It was effectively a hedging strategy, where both options can still win.
Today, we got this final quote from him:
Biden at $1.50 is a historic opportunity.
He’s also great value in all six of the electoral college handicap markets.
These targets are much better value than individual states, because they have multiple paths to win and allow for the odd reversal. Win Florida or Texas, and I expect Biden will land all six, up to the -140.5 band.
Paul thinks that Biden will comprehensively win.
Tavis Rendell, our other expert, gives Trump more hope than many full time political traders. However, Biden is still the value at the current odds.
conclusion
Joe Biden provides a historic betting opportunity.
The polling data and prediction models make him a 9 in 10 chance of winning, yet the betting odds say he is two in three.
The political experts believe the market is held up by recreational money and Trump’s previous win.
But 2020 looks even harder than 2016. You can see that in the polls and the swing state graphs.
2020 Us Presidential Election Odds Australia
Biden just has too many states within reach and looks tremendous value in the current market.
Final US Election Tips
BACK — Joe Biden at $1.50
Electoral College Vote Handicap -140.5
BACK — Joe Biden -140.5 at $2.82
Pennsylvania
BACK — Democrats at $1.53
Alaska
BACK — Democrats at $9.40
Minnesota
BACK — Republicans at $4.80
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Extra Resources
Predicted electoral college map
From 270ToWin:
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